June 15th 2021
Statistics show a slight decrease in both sales numbers and in average prices in May as compared to April, across Niagara.
May recorded a total of 992 units sold in 2021. This is down 141 units or 12.44% from April. At the same time, however, it is up 493 units or 98.8% from the 499 units sold in May 2020. This seems to be a province-wide trend. Hamilton Burlington for example, our neighbouring board, showed a decrease of 16% in sales volume in May 2021 as compared to the previous month.
Although slight, this is actually a departure from the trend we have seen over the past few years where May sales figures tend to trend upward from April. Have a look at the accompanying graph which illustrates this more clearly in a visual format.
Of course, it’s too soon to indicate any kind of a trend. And as you can see from the graph, the sales numbers still remain very strong and in fact, continue close to record territory. But a dip of 12% is something to be aware of. Personally, I suspect it may have a lot to do with the newly imposed lockdown that the Province is currently under. Remember, the original ‘stay at home’ order last April caused sales activity to drop in half from the previous month's 567 to 280. It will be interesting to see what happens over the next couple of months as the stay-at-home order is lifted and we move back into more normal daily activity.
Now, what about the price? What is happening there?
Here too we are seeing a very slight dip in average sale price month over month. Across the Region, the average sale price came in at $682,476 for the month of May. A drop of $16,897 or 2.4% from the previous month. In all likelihood, this is just typical monthly volatility. The $682,476 figure is pretty much the same as the $679,844 figure in March and is up to $70,314 or 11.5% from where we ended 2020 and started the year. It is also up $176,586 or 34.9% from this time last year.
So, looking ahead, what can we expect? It’s hard to forecast with all the unknown about COVID and its lingering impact on the economy. It would seem that while we are not likely to experience another 40% price increase over the next year, we will still see price gains and a solid performance as far as sales numbers go. The market is strong.
Interest rates remain at historic lows, consumer confidence if anything is continuing to strengthen and real estate is where the smart money continues to flow.