COVID-19  

What a difference a month makes! Last issue we were enjoying an outstanding real estate market with both sales numbers and average prices on the rise. I fully expected that momentum to continue through the spring. I wasn’t counting on Covid-19.  

Both the Niagara Association of Realtors and the Realtor Association of Hamilton-Burlington have now released their sales figures for March. What they show in all marketplaces is a continuation of the strong market we saw in January and February. But those figures, while accurate, are misleading. The Boards don’t report actual sales figures for the previous month. They report the sales that closed during that time period. And so, March figures published are really reflective of sales made in January and February, prior to this world-wide pandemic. When real estate was flowing uninterrupted.  

Here in Ontario, real estate has been designated as an essential service. And so, while restaurants and shops are shut down, people are still free to buy and sell real estate and to use the services of a realtor. And they do and they are – but in limited numbers. People who need to sell or to buy are still active. And for many who need financing or have a house to sell, the current climate allows them to do so without being shut out by a dozen or so competing offers. People who want to sell or buy but the need is not pressing are in some cases, holding off until things get back to normal.  

So I’ve elected not to publish charts or graphs reflecting the reported sales in March only because I don’t believe they are reflective of the current reality.  

What I do want to share with you is where I see the market going from here and when I believe we can expect it to be back to normal.  

We have all seen the incredible impact this pandemic has had on the stock markets here in North America and around the globe. Record setting drops in both the Dow and the TSX underscore the fear and uncertainty this virus has sponed. In real estate we have seen a substantial drop in volume of transactions recorded since the middle of March but to date there has been very little softening of prices. I think that’s a tribute to the strength of the market and its underlying fundamentals. The interest is there. The demand is very much intact on the part of home buyers and sellers, investors, speculators and renovators. Many are just waiting for the pause button to be released.  

And when can we expect that to happen? It seems from looking at China where it all began and in countries that entered this pandemic before Canada and the U.S.A. that the brunt of the impact runs about 2 ½ - 3 months. In Wuhan, China where it all began, life has pretty much returned to normal. Shops and restaurants are re-opening. In Austria and the Netherlands, restrictions are being eased and life is returning to normal. We as a country are trying to ‘flatten the curve’ and reduce new infections and deaths. Our effort will also help to shorten the curve. It may not seem like it, but we will come out of this and life will return to normal – soon.  

And what can we expect the real estate market to look like when all this is over? I believe we’ll pick up very much where we left off with strong growth in unit sales and in average sale prices. As a buyer you have an opportunity to act now, if that works for you. But whether now or later, you’ll continue to appreciate the investment you make in real estate around the Golden Horseshoe and especially here in Niagara.