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Blog Entries in Market Overview

Last newsletter we saw that the first month of the year started off a little stronger than where it had finished in December. A gain of $6,111 to be exact. Not a huge gain, but it at least reversed a six month slide in prices.

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Looking back at market performance over the years, we see that while in rapidly appreciating markets like 2017, 2020 and 2021 it is not unusual to see prices continue to climb into December and January, that is not typically the case. In both declining markets and in stable balanced markets, we see prices decline at year end, and generally on into January as well. That pattern was seen in 2022-2023 and that is precisely what we are seeing again in 2023-2024.

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As we slide into the last few weeks of 2023 the market presents no real surprises. Prices in November are down on average about $12,362 or 1.8% from October. And that’s pretty consistent with what we’ve seen in past years for November, as the market runs out of steam approaching the Christmas season.

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The sales figures are in for the month of October and they really don’t contain a lot of surprises. In fact, the average sale price across the Region is almost exactly what it was last month, $673,383 in October compared to $673,674 in September. A drop of $288 or 0.04%. Negligible!

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Last month when the sales figures came in for August, we were surprised to see a significant downward trend in prices across almost every sector of the region. In some cases, the drop in average sale price was huge. Niagara Falls down 9.80% for example, Fort Erie down 8.56%, Welland down 8.44% and so on. In just one month. But upon further investigation we saw that the actual apples to apples price drop was only around one percent. We saw that when we consulted the H.P.I. which compares the selling prices of similar properties rather than sales averages of all properties sold.

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The sales figures are in for August, and at first brush they are quite alarming. Substantial month over month drops in almost every municipality! St. Catharines down $30,277 or 4.53%, Niagara Falls down $67,057 or 9.80%, Fort Erie down $59,352 or 8.56%, Welland down $51,894 or 8.44%, Thorold down $38,944 or 6.12%. And the Niagara Region as a whole down $37,048 or 5.16%. And that’s in just one mont

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The average price across the region continues to paint a blurry picture. Last month you may recall, the price was up from May by $30,562 or 4.33%. But May was actually down from April by $12,602 or 1.75%. Now the sales figures have come in for July and the average is a somewhat disappointing $717,398. That’s down from June by $19,093 or 2.59%, pretty much where it was at the end of April. Still up $61,061 or 9.30% from year end 2022 which is encouraging. But it’s finding it difficult to make solid headway. Gaining one month and then giving back some of those gains the next.

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It’s always interesting to look at the numbers each month as they come in and see how they compare to the ‘feel’ of the marketplace. The numbers are now in for June and once again they seem to be giving a mixed picture. Let’s start with price.

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